An Agent Based Model of Mangrove Social-Ecological System for Livelihood Security Assessment

Shamima Airin Sweety; M Shah Alam Khan; Anisul Haque; Mashfiqus Salehin

Published in ‘Water Management: A View from Multidisciplinary Perspectives’

Abstract

Ecosystem services and livelihood security are strongly interrelated in any social-ecological system (SES), and their interdependence should be assessed using an integrated framework. Overexploitation of ecosystem resources may undermine the ecosystem services while restrictions on resource extraction may hamper the dependent livelihoods. We examine these interrelationships for the mangrove SES in Bangladesh using an Agent Based Model (ABM), a useful tool for integrated assessment of human behavior and natural processes. The model simulates the dynamics of ecosystem pressure and livelihood security by linking the supply and expenditure of ecosystem resources, exploited and/or regulated by five primary agents, viz. Bawalis, Farmers, and Fishers (livelihood agents), and Forest office and UP office (institutional agents). We find that the livelihood activities can be considerably influenced, both favorably and adversely, by the ecosystem characteristics and the institutional efficiencies. Sustainability of the livelihood activities is indicated by a change in the number of livelihood groups being able to continue their activities in the long term. This will require sound institutional policy for conservation of the ecosystem, preventing overexploitation, and supporting production of provisioning ecosystem services. Supporting optimum levels of livelihood activities and ensuring sustainability of ecosystem resources will help avert their tipping points.